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Predictive risk and health care: an overview

dianagosalvez Diana Gosálvez Prados last modified 14/03/2011 12:44

Predictive risk adjustment tools are becoming increasingly important in the NHS, with primary care trusts (PCTs) and GP consortia expected to make greater use of such tools to stratify the health risk of the populations they serve.

Bardsley M, et al. Predictive risk and health care: an overview. London: Nuffield Trust; 2011. Available at: http://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/publications/detail.aspx?id=145&prID=759



These tools use relationships in historic, routinely collected electronic health data to determine the expected future health care resource use of each individual in a population. The tools can be used to estimate future events for people at different levels of risk, providing commissioners with more accurate estimates of likely future costs.

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Bardsley M, et al.